Modeling of Weather Parameters Using Stochastic Methods （ARIMA Model）（Case Study:Abadeh Region,Iran）
1. Department of Water Engineering, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz-Iran2. Member of Young Researchers Club, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz Branch, Shiraz-Iran3. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Roudehen Branch, Roudehen-Iran4. Student in Water Engineering Department, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University
摘要：Climate change in world is always one of the most important topics in water resources. Weather parameters including precipitation, monthly Temperature and relative humidity forecasting could be practically useful in making decisions, risk management and optimum usage of water resources. These three parameters have undeniable effects on hydrological cycle, production of crops products cycle, water usage specifically agricultural usage, people activities and the environments. Time series analysis has two goals, perception or modeling random mechanism and prediction of future series quantities according to the past. In this research 20 years statistics of relative humidity and monthly average temperature and precipitation of Abadeh Station have used by ITSM time series analysis software. According to the ARIMA model, ACF, PACF and evaluation of all eventual samples, precipitation model: ARIMA （0 0 1） （1 1 1）12 and monthly average temperature : ARIMA （2 1 0） （2 1 0）12 and relative humidity : ARIMA （2 1 1） （1 1 0）12 were obtained.
International Conference on Environment and Industrial Innovation（ICEII 2011）
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia