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摘要:We describe and analyze compartmental models for disease transmission. We begin with models for epidemics, showing how to calculate the basic reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic. We also study models with multiple compartments, including treatment of infective. We also consider models including births and deaths in which there may be an endemic equilibrium. We argue that if we lack detailed knowledge of the biology of the transmission process, parameter estimation should be accompanied by a structural sensitivity analysis, in addition to the standard statistical uncertainty analysis. Here we focus on the estimation of the basic reproductive number from the initial growth rate of an outbreak as this is a setting in which parameter estimation can be surprisingly sensitive to details of the time course of infection.
会议名称:

2015 2nd International Conference on World Islamic Studies

会议时间:

2015-03-08

会议地点:

Seoul, South Korea

  • 专辑:

    基础科学

  • 专题:

    数学

  • 分类号:

    O175

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