Trade War and Industrial Upgrading in China: Evidence from Regional and Industrial Panel Data
Department of Economics Illinois State University and Institute of Economics Tsinghua University
摘要：Industrial upgrading（IU）, the stepwise development of manufacturing skills from simple to more complicated tasks, is a must for China to escape the middle-income trap and achieve sustainable growth. How does the on-going US-China trade war affect China’s IU? This study aims to work on the two issues by using recent Chinese panel dataset. Based on 21 manufacturing sectors for 31 regions over 2005-2015, we estimate the impact of globalization on IU. Globalization is measured by trade volume and FDI stock, and IU is captured by changes in four measures: medium-and high-tech manufacturing（MHTM） value added per capita, share of MHTM value added in total, MHTM exports per capital, and share of MHTM exports in total. We find that（a） both trade and FDI have positive impacts on IU;（b） domestic human capital and R&D complement significantly with trade and FDI; and（c） the complement effects are larger than the four factors alone. The findings imply a big negative impact on China’s industrial upgrading.
工业经济; 贸易经济; 贸易经济