Analysis of the Impact of the First Phase of China-US Economic and Trade Agreement on China’s Agricultural Products Industry——Simulation Analysis based on GTAP Model
摘要：According to the first-phase economic and trade agreement announced by China and the United States, this article uses GTAP model to simulate the impact of the first-phase economic and trade agreement between China and the United States on China’s agricultural production and trade, and then discusses the agreement on China’s agricultural product import and export pattern and industrial chain Impact. The results of the study show that the reduction of tariffs by China and the United States has had an important impact on the agricultural industry in both China and the United States. China’s total imports of agricultural products have increased, and the total export of U.S. agricultural products has increased; and the increase in imports of meat products is the most obvious; the agricultural products trade of countries along the "Belt and Road" has no obvious buffer effect on the Sino-US trade dispute. The signing of this agreement will also lower the import prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, which in turn will cause the price reduction effect to be passed on to the production costs and prices of feed and livestock and aquatic products. this article analyzes the future trend of Sino-US trade relations and proposes corresponding policy recommendations for possible problems in China’s agricultural related fields.
2nd International Symposium on Frontiers of Economics and Management Science （FEMS 2021）