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摘要:Purpose:This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram combining plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA(EBV DNA)for non-disseminated nasopharyngeal carcinoma(NPC).Patients and Methods:The nomogram was based on a retrospective study on 4,630 patients who underwent radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from 2007 to2009.Thepredictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordanceindex(C-index)and calibration curve and compared with plasma EBV DNA and current American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC)staging system.The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and a prospective cohort study on 1,819 patientsconsecutively enrolled from 2011 to 2012 at the same institution.Results:Independent factors derived from multivariate analysis of the primary cohort to predict recurrence were age,gender,BMI,T stage,N stage,plasma EBV DNA,pretreatmenths-CRP,LDH,and hemoglobin level,which were all assembled intothe nomogram.The calibration curve for the probability of recurrence showed that the nomogram-based predictionswere in good agreement withactual observations.The C-index of the nomogram for predicting recurrence was 0.728(P<0.001),which was statistically higher than the C-index values for EBV DNA(0.680)and the AJCC stage system(0.608).The C-index remains higher(0.730)for predicting recurrence among patients treated with Intensity-modulated radiotherapy(P<0.001).In the validation cohort,the nomogram discrimination(0.709)was superior to EBV DNA(0.668,P=0.009)and the AJCC staging system(0.619,P<0.001).Conclusion:The proposed nomogram combining plasma EBV DNA resulted in more-accurate prognostic prediction for NPC patients.
会议名称:

第七届全国鼻咽癌学术大会

会议时间:

2015-03-27

会议地点:

中国浙江杭州

  • 专辑:

    医药卫生科技

  • 专题:

    肿瘤学; 眼科与耳鼻咽喉科

  • 分类号:

    R739.63

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