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Prediction of the Logistics Demand Based on an Innovative Mixed Model: an Empirical Case from Nanping City,China

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【作者】 王波魏乐琴陈金雄蔡尚斌张立中边舫

【Author】 WANG Bo;WEI Leqin;CHEN Jinxiong;TSAI Sangbing;CHANG Lichung;BIAN Fang;School of Business,Wuyi University;School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Wuyi University;College of Business Administration,Capital University of Economics and Business;Zhongshan Institute,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China;

【通讯作者】 王波;陈金雄;

【机构】 School of Business,Wuyi UniversitySchool of Mathematics and Computer Science,Wuyi UniversityCollege of Business Administration,Capital University of Economics and BusinessZhongshan Institute,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

【摘要】 The research intends to make scientific prediction of the logistics demand of Nanping City based on mathematical model calculation so as to provide reasonable strategic guidance for the sustainable and healthy development of urban logistics industry. It constructs a comprehensive index system composed of freight volume and other eight relevant economic indices to form the foundation for the model construction. Combining forecasting models of principal component regression and GM( 1,1) together,it makes mathematical calculation to predict the logistics demand of Nanping City from the years 2018 to 2022. The research makes systematical analyses of the indices influencing the precise prediction of logistics demand from a new perspective,which offers an innovative and practical option for urban logistics prediction. In line with the prediction,it offers some suggestions for the improvement of demand prediction and some strategies for the better development of the logistics industry in Nanping City.

【基金】 National Social Science Foundation of China(No.17CGJ002);Major Project of Education and Teaching Reform of Undergraduate Universities in Fujian Province,China(No.FBJG20190130)
  • 【分类号】F259.27
  • 【下载频次】3
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